RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) decreased -3.4% y/y.
With an estimated ~90% share of $1B+ chain system sales currently driven by off-premise, this decrease in sentiment is mostly concerning as it relates to economic stress & consumer spending.
Given reports that demand for dine-in exceeds capacity, casual & family players likely are protected by a sales cushion until headlines subside.
Further, additions of things like winterized tents help support the dine-in channel which has already been sharply dialed-back (especially in places like California where dine-in was never really re-opened).
In any case, we see both QSR & FSR average promotional price trends beginning to turn-down. It maybe that this declining trend may have to accelerate in order to better address elevated unemployment rates that will be exacerbated by new lockdown measures in certain regions.