Economic Outlook

Inflation, Supply Chain & Post-Stimmy Labor Shortages 

  • Real GDP growth declined to +2% during 3Q21, representing economic growth post-stimmy and with ongoing supply chain woes.¬†
  • The rising cost of essential items (food-at-home +4.5% & gas +53%) is significantly outpacing the growth in disposable income (+2% y/y Sep.).
  • Labor participation rate is down -1.5% to 61.6% currently.
  • Net/net, total consumer debt has been steadily rising as consumers turn to savings or credit cards to make ends meet.