Same Store Sales Trends

Strong 3Q Sales Even Among the Mom & Pops

  • 3Q21 comps increased +11.7% y/y for the $1B+ Chains and +11.3% on a 2 yr. stacked basis as all segments of the industry have fully recovered (~90% of the chains reported positive results).

  • 3Q21 total restaurant industry revenues (comps + new unit growth) increased +30% y/y and +15.2% on a 2 yr. stacked basis (+15.4% QSR & +14.9% FSR). This suggests a huge rebound in the mom & pops during last quarter!

  • Notably, government data (2Q21 most recent) reveals a +1.4% 2-year stacked increase in net unit growth for the restaurant industry (sharply contrasting with widely attributable 3rd party research showing the closure of -20% of total restaurants through September 2021). This suggests the possibility that many of these closures were temporary with their re-openings driving a sharp rebound in 3Q21 mom & pop sales.

  • Also of note is that restaurant sales benefit from higher pricing with the Food Away From Home CPI increasing +4.6% y/y during the quarter and +8.4% on a 2 yr. stacked basis.