• It seems that material food-away-from-home inflation can only be absorbed by government stimulus. Without this, traffic suffers.
• Notably, supplemental unemployment benefits are set to end in at least 25 states beginning in mid-June.
• Fortunately, child tax credit payments are forthcoming shortly.
• Weakness is most notable among the working age demos (25-64).
• While the previous eye-popping growth of RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) maybe slowing, it looks like sales for June will still be strong on a y/y basis.
• So it appears that even as stimulus tapers, consumer demand remains robust as consumer confidence continues to rebound and jobless claims drop to a post-lockdown low.
RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +28.5%, representing an easy y/y compare but also the strongest absolute results ever.
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• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +17.4% y/y, representing the largest monthly increase & 2nd highest absolute score since survey inception.
• Strong results from women & the 25+ age demo for both sexes helped offset weakness in the QSR oriented 18-24 demo.
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +7.4% y/y, representing both the second largest monthly increase and absolute score since survey inception.
• We credit this with improving price value (see chart below) combined with government stimulus.
