Arby’s is well positioned as a QSR DT player that can serve as a credible alternative to a NY deli, the chain could benefit from strategies to bring its AUV closer to the segment average and more progress in digital.
• Denny’s unique “America’s Diner” brand positioning provides the promise of everyday value with craveable, indulgent products (comfort food) served around the clock.
• Current sales benefit from off-premise stickiness and incremental sales generated by its 2 new virtual brands (Burger Den & Meltdown).
• Now that Denny’s has largely returned to its 2019 unit-level financial performance, the chain must continue to contemporize by making further progress around lunch and dinner while also leveraging progress around off-premise to extend its reach to a younger demo.
• Wingstop is the only $1B+ national chain with an exclusive specialization in the hot chicken wing category.
• A system high AUV translates into a near all-time high EBITDAR in absolute dollars.
• Bone-in wing price volatility represents perhaps the chain’s most significant risk.
• 2Q:21 comps increased +37.9% y/y for the $1B+ Chains and +12.8% on a 2 yr. stacked basis as all segments of the industry have fully recovered.
• 3Q:21 comp trends are moderating, reflecting flat disposable income (less government assistance) coupled with significantly higher menu and gas prices.
• Franchisee EBITDA valuation multiples continue to recover and are now only -2.9% below their 2H:16 peak.
• Premiums for deals with $1M+ in aggregate EBITDA continue to rebound off the 1H:20 low.
• Full year 2021 restaurant originations are expected to increase +19.1% compared to initial expectations in January.
• 3rd largest burger chain with a well-established brand equity around flame grilling.
• Burger platforms include the signature Whopper configurations and various “King” varieties.
• New Ch’King Sandwich helps BK enter into the chicken sandwich war.
• BK’s challenge is to find ways to expand its market reach towards new, more affluent consumers who are willing to pay for the brand’s strong core equities and quality upgrades.
Taco Bell is extremely well positioned as the only $1B+ national QSR Mexican player (category of 1) with core equity around abundant value and craveable food with a bold flavor profile. A positive long-term sales outlook reflects: strong value equation; innovative marketing calendar; strong positioning with Millennials; ability to address multiple dayparts including breakfast, Happier Hour/snack & late night; access to expanded DSP marketplaces; and new store formats which increase capacity for off-premise digital.