Category: Dashboard

Unit Level Dashboard – Aug 2022

• While 2Q comps for the $1B+ Chains increased +3.5% (+14% 3-yr. stack), RR’s consumer survey (which measures intentions to eat-out over the next month) continues to reveal a challenging 3Q sales outlook.
• Food prices continue to surge, breaking another record in July (+10.9% y/y & +14.8% 2-yr. stack).
• Recent passage of the California Fast Food Accountability & Standards Recovery Act increases QSR wages in the state by +40% to $22/hr. in 2023, aggravating labor inflation.
• Unit-level operating margins for the corporate owned stores of the publicly traded $1B+ Chain companies declined 4.5% to 16.5% during 2Q:22 vs. 2Q:21.

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Capital Markets Dashboard – Aug 22

• Macro-economic results continue to represent a major head-wind for restaurant stocks.
• While 2Q financial results for the public QSRs were OK, we suggest a review of current unit-level performance may provide important insight into the challenges that are weakening the franchise systems that are core to many of these public companies.
• 2H:22 EBITDA multiple outlook (-6% y/y decline) represents the biggest contraction since 1H:20.

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Unit-Level Dashboard

• Comps must be interpreted through a prism of mid to high single digit menu price increases, suggesting QSR traffic losses while FSR benefits from an ongoing return to normal dine-in habits.
• The average price of food in the United States surged +10.4% in the 12 months ended June 2022 (+13.1% 2-yr. stack), the most since February 1981.
• Unit-level operating margins for the corporate owned stores of the publicly traded companies that have so far reported declined by -3.9% y/y during 2Q22.

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Capital Markets Dashboard

• 2Q GDP decline of -0.9% represents the second consecutive quarterly contraction and is consistent with a slight +1% increase in personal consumption expenditures which is falling behind a supply shock driven +9% inflation rate.
• July’s restaurant stock performance suggests that investors called a bottom at the end of June.
• Unit-level buyers are increasingly wary of rising borrowing rates and deteriorating unit economics.

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Capital Markets Dashboard

• What does stagflation look like?
• Given the economic backdrop, how do investors find the bottom for restaurant stocks?
• How low can the cap rate spread vs. the 10-yr. treasury go?

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