Category: Dashboard

RR Dashboard: Capital Markets & Economy Apr 2022

• April was a difficult month for equities with both the RR $1B+ Index and S&P losing more than -8%. QSR stocks were hit hardest, evening-out some over-size gains during 2021 (relative to FSR).
• A -14.9% y/y decline in disposable income reflects: a tough compare with last year’s government stimulus benefits; exploding inflation (CPI for all items up +8.5%); and higher borrowing costs.
• Concerns about sales, labor, inflation and interest rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on valuations with both the QSR & FSR indexes falling into bear territory.

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RR Dashboard: Sales Not Keeping Up with Cost Inflation

• Initial 3-year stack comp performance for the $1B+ chains reveal that QSR is still outperforming FSR despite less impressive headline sales numbers for 1Q:22 alone. Going forward prospects are less optimistic as indicated by RR’s recent consumer survey which measures intentions to eat-out over the next month. 
• The BLS Foodstuffs Index notched another all-time high in April and is up +109.3% y/y on a 2-year stacked basis.
• While operators are working hard to lower controllable costs, they cannot drive sales sufficiently to maintain their store-level margins in the current inflationary environment. 

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RR Dashboard: Sales Catching-Up with the Consumer

• April RR Intent to Eat Out Index plunged -13.7% y/y due to difficult comparisons with April 2021 when consumers benefitted from $1,400/person government stimulus payments.
• The Food at Home (grocery stores) CPI expanded at its fastest rate in 40 years (+8.6% y/y during 2/22) – surpassing both the QSR and FSR CPI for the first time since 7/20.
• The price for regular gas increased +$0.70/gallon (+20%) to $4.22 compared to last month (+50% y/y) and represents the highest price ever.

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RR Dashboard: Growing Disconnect Between Inflation & Sales

• 4Q21 comps for the $1B+ Chains increased +11.5% and +10.5% on a 2-year stacked basis (’21 vs. ’19), but is it sustainable?
• Investors piled into FSR stocks as mandates are lifted across the country while weak QSR performance reflects concerns about the impact of record inflation on lower income consumers.
• 1Q:22 GDP outlook was already flat before the Ukraine and oil price shock (crude up +43% YTD to $110 on 3/2) added further headwinds to an already fragile consumer.

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RR Dashboard: 2021 Restaurant Sales Set a Record

• 2021 restaurant system sales were record highs for both the $1B+ chains and, shockingly, for the independents and smaller chains according to government data.
• Stocks were particularly hard hit in January as concerns over inflation and rising interest rates were most worrisome for consumers & restaurants.
• While franchisee EBITDA multiples for the $1B+ Chains declined -1.7% according to RR’s preliminary 2H:21 valuation survey, they are expected to rise to 2019 levels during 1H22.

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