Economy

CALLING A RECESSION

2Q GDP decline of -0.9% represents the second consecutive quarterly contraction and is consistent with a slight +1% increase in personal consumption expenditures which is falling behind a supply shock driven +9% inflation rate. While those that say we are not in a recession point to a low unemployment rate, they fail to mention that the labor participation rate remains at a historic low. Falling Treasury yields also point to expectations for a slowing economy, courtesy of the aggressive Fed interest rate hikes which are stressing a heavily indebted consumer. The Atlanta FED is currently forecasting +1.3% GDP growth for 3Q22, we will see…