Unit & Systemwide Sales Growth – 2022

Report Highlights

  • 10-year history for 57 $1B+ chains including: (1) total units; (2) new units; (3) closures; (4) systemwide sales; and (5) system sales market share.

Conclusions

  • 2021 gross unit development rate of +2.6% for the $1B+ Chains was in-line with 2019 and up slightly from the 2020 low of +2.1%. This reflected above average growth (4.0%+) in the fast casual, chicken and coffee/bakery segments which helped to off-set below average growth (<2%) in the sandwich, family, and casual segments.
  • Gross unit development is expected to grow +3.1% in 2022 despite headwinds that include ramping material costs, extended lead times for equipment and rising financing costs.
  • While 2021 closure rates for the $1B+ chains improved from 2020’s elevated levels, they have been generally trending higher since 2014 which reflects persistent unit level margin pressure over the last 6 years (while 2021 store-level EBITDAR margin rebounded to ~18.4%, it remains below the 2015 19.9% peak).
  • 2021 net unit growth for the $1B+ Chains was +0.2% (vs. +1.1% for the total restaurant industry).
  • Systemwide sales for the $1B+ Chains increased +15.7% during 2021 (+9.9% 2-year stacked basis) compared to +32.8% (+14.9% 2-year stacked basis) for the total restaurant industry.
  • 2021 total restaurant industry market share for the $1B+ Chains has steadily declined to the lowest level in 19 years (35.2% in 2021 versus 42.1% 2009 peak) according to government data.
  • Notably, this contrasts with a 3Q21 Dine Brands report that 110,000 US restaurants permanently closed (10% to 15% of the total), leading to a 5% market share gain for the chains.

Unit & Sales Growth Analysis 2022 – Report Outline