RR Insights Journal

Insights Journal: Marketing Spend Analysis; Retail Sales Pop in March; Chick-fil-A Continues to Amaze; Executive Summaries for Jack & Chili’s.

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Jack in the Box

Jack’s traditional burger/chicken menu is known for variety, innovation and a taco distinction (addressing cravings throughout the day & munchies at night) with 4 strong dayparts, including late-night which benefits from 24/7 drive-thru access. Although this is a regional system with almost 70% of its stores located in California & Texas, the brand enjoys leading QSR hamburger share in 8 of its 10 major markets.

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Chili’s

Chili’s positioning as the 3rd largest casual player by sales: digital, tech-forward; strong everyday value with good value for the money; great place to hang-out with family & friends; and a great bar atmosphere. Young families represent Chili’s primary target and corporate reports: the highest value scores across the category; plans to continue to incent through direct & digital as opposed to LTOs; and that its value mix increased post-lockdown.

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Dashboard: Mar 2021

• Strong April comp prospects reflect that RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index increased +17.4% y/y in March and an overlap over last year’s lockdown period will provide a favorable y/y comparison, especially for FSR.
• A +40% jump in the March BLS Foodstuffs index and sharply higher lumber prices could impact both COGS & development costs.

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RR StockSense 4Q:20

• Stock prices in the restaurant/grocery space have come-off their 52-week highs as investors pause to better assess long-term fundamentals in the new world.
• All-the-same, stock recoveries from their 52-week lows are substantial.

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4Q20 Investor Call Analysis

● The industry continued an uneven recovery as healthy consumer demand for dine-in occasions was interrupted by vacillating government dine-in restrictions which tightened at year-end.
● Fortunately, restrictions began to ease again at the start of 2021 and, despite some uncooperative weather, 1Q dine-in comps seem to be back on track for recovery.
● QSR had a great year as any chain with a drive-thru made-out ok.

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4Q20 Same Store Sales

● 4Q:20 $1B+ Chains same store sales were down -1.1% which is roughly in line with 3Q:20 results
● Preliminary full year 2020 comps for the $1B+ Chains declined -4.9%
● The $1B+ Chains increased market share relative to the total restaurant industry.

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