SLOWING INTENT = LESS INCOME & DISCOUNTS • RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +4.5% y/y. • However, on a sequential month/month basis, the Index declined -1.5% and represented the lowest level since April’s rebound.
Things are Looking Up!: Sales Continue to Improve as Capacity Trends Higher; Promotional Price Points are Ramping Higher; Economy Doing Well with 2nd Stimulus Coming; Commodity Prices Continue to Ramp-up; Franchisee M&A Supply Expected to Ramp-Up; RR Index Slightly Out-Performs in a Down Month and Spreads Shrink Between Cap Rates & 10 Yr.
Denny’s unique “America’s Diner” brand positioning provides the promise of everyday value with craveable, indulgent products (comfort food) served around the clock in a friendly and welcoming atmosphere. Its “See You at Denny’s” messaging is designed to prompt consumers to check out the brand’s ongoing makeover which includes a menu overhaul using higher quality ingredients to go with remodeled stores featuring a more comfortable dining space. The chain’s core menu equity reflects: everyday value; LTO innovation; warm, friendly “come as you are” atmosphere; and 24/7 availability.
Jersey Mike’s “Sub Above” brand positioning is based upon: freshly sliced cold subs & grilled hot subs made with quality ingredients; signature Mike’s Way sandwich topping option, including a drizzling of “The Juice”; a great customer experience built upon conversational hospitality & fast service speed; and a charitable culture of “giving to give”. Its Northeast-style cold subs are made-to-order with private labeled meats sliced in front of customers and fresh-sliced cheeses & produce piled high on bread baked in-store. Hot subs emphasize grilling of Cheesesteaks (USDA choice top round roast beef cooked in-house) and Chicken Cheesesteaks.
Arby’s strong and unique positioning is based upon a credible, affordable NY deli format (with a drive-thru) that bakes beef roasts and freshly slices all other roasts in-house to create fast-crafted, made-to-order hot deli sandwiches. “We Have the Meats” lineup includes a full selection of roast beef, beef brisket, corned beef, turkey, chicken & gyro and Arby’s sandwiches are distinguished by generous stacks of quality meat toppings (big, meaty sandwiches) with leading-edge protein variety which extends well beyond Arby’s core roast beef heritage.
• RR’s Intent to Eat Out Index (our survey of 1,500 consumers’ plans to eat-out over the next month) increased +5.5% y/y. • On a sequential month/month basis, we see a stabilization in the form of a strong increase in respondents indicating plans to eat-out with about the same frequency as the previous month (especially among those 55+).
Getting Back to Normal: Preliminary 3Q Sales Trends Reveals Rebound Momentum; Value Offers are Finding Equilibrium; Government Back-Stops Strengthening Secular Trends; Increasing Commodity Prices Reflect Normalizing Demand; 2H:20 Valuations Outlook Grows More Optimistic; FSR Restaurant Stocks Stage Strong Rebound & Record Gap Remains Between Cap Rates & 10 Yr.