• RR’s consumer survey (which measures intentions to eat-out over the next month) reveals a deteriorating sales outlook after showing signs of improvement during the previous 2 months.
• Both QSR & FSR operators are losing their grip on value as inflation continues to spiral out-of-control.
• According to government data, total net unit growth for the restaurant industry improved each quarter throughout 2021 (versus 2019).
While Wendy’s has done well to magnify its significant menu prowess sufficient to generate a respectable +14% cumulative U.S. comp growth from 2019 – 2021, the chain must continue to work to translate its QSR+ positioning into increased frequency from a higher income demo sufficient to drive a higher check and in-line comp performance.
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• Subway is the largest sub sandwich chain by far with an ad budget larger by multiples than the other sub chains.
• Notably, a +29% comp rebound in 2021 followed a -20% 2020 decline and 2021 digital sales are triple 2019 levels, supported by its FreshBuzz App and loyalty program.
• Subway’s well-conceived upscale Refresh must now pivot to value if the system is to endure an economic downturn that is disproportionately afflicting its lower income core demo.
• 1Q22 same store sales for the $1B+ Chains increased +6.1% (+14.7% 3-yr stack) on slowing momentum (relative to +11.5% during 4Q21) with 7 of 30 chains reporting negative sales (compared to just 1 in 4Q21).
• With food-away-from-home CPI up +6.7% during the quarter, it is easy to see that comp growth is primarily attributable to menu price increases as opposed to traffic.
1Q:22 investor conference calls indicate staffing and commodity cost challenges somewhat off-set by higher menu prices and increased dine-in business.
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• Restaurant stocks on average are down -40% from their 52-week high, trading at ~15x EV/EBITDA, as investors continue to struggle to assess the impact of out-of-control inflation on consumers’ ability to maintain their dine-out habits.
• Given current inflation rates, interest rates should be much higher.
• The spread between cap rates and the 10-yr. approached the record low set in April as real estate has become the most attractive asset class to NNN investors.
While McDonald’s is currently well positioned with solid execution around very sound fundamentals, its core value oriented customers are caught in an inflationary spiral which may require a sacrificial pivot towards price value from this iconic brand which has worked so hard to earn America’s trust over the many decades.
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• FSR 1Q:22 comp performance for $1B+ chains outperformed the annual average for the 3-year stack comp as the sit-down concepts continue their recovery.
• Conversely, QSR comps are slowing, mirroring recent industry commentary about how the higher income demo (FSR) has been more resilient to current economic conditions relative to the lower income demo (QSR).
• Record highs for many commodities and wages have prompted most of the public restaurant companies to raise their cost outlooks for 2022.
• 2021 gross unit development rate of +2.6% for the $1B+ Chains was in-line with 2019 and is expected to grow +3.1% in 2022 despite headwinds.
• 2021 closure rates for the $1B+ chains improved from 2020’s elevated levels, but net unit growth was below the overall industry.
• Systemwide sales for the $1B+ Chains increased +15.7% during 2021 (+9.9% 2-year stacked basis) compared to +32.8% (+14.9% 2-year stacked basis) for the total restaurant industry and total restaurant industry market share for the $1B+ Chains has steadily declined to the lowest level in 19 years.
Total 2021 net marketing spend for the $1B+ Chain restaurants increased +8.9% y/y (+2.8% 2-yr. stack) to $6.9B, reflecting the benefit of +15.7% systemwide sales growth (+9.9% 2-yr. stack) somewhat off-set by lower net marketing spend as a percent of sales (continuing a longer-term trend in which marketing spend has declined from 3.1% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2021). Notably, total net restaurant marketing spend as a % of total domestic spend across all industries has declined from 3.2% in 2017 to 2.5% in 2021 as the chains appear less impressed with marketing ROI compared to other industries.
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While Jimmy John’s has taken important steps to improve its relevancy, a sustained sales rebound for the chain would certainly benefit from a return of office workers and an increase in the availability of affordable delivery drivers sufficient to support the chain’s “freaky fast” core equity that distinguishes in a crowded field.
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• April was a difficult month for equities with both the RR $1B+ Index and S&P losing more than -8%. QSR stocks were hit hardest, evening-out some over-size gains during 2021 (relative to FSR).
• A -14.9% y/y decline in disposable income reflects: a tough compare with last year’s government stimulus benefits; exploding inflation (CPI for all items up +8.5%); and higher borrowing costs.
• Concerns about sales, labor, inflation and interest rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on valuations with both the QSR & FSR indexes falling into bear territory.
• Initial 3-year stack comp performance for the $1B+ chains reveal that QSR is still outperforming FSR despite less impressive headline sales numbers for 1Q:22 alone. Going forward prospects are less optimistic as indicated by RR’s recent consumer survey which measures intentions to eat-out over the next month.
• The BLS Foodstuffs Index notched another all-time high in April and is up +109.3% y/y on a 2-year stacked basis.
• While operators are working hard to lower controllable costs, they cannot drive sales sufficiently to maintain their store-level margins in the current inflationary environment.
Chili’s recent sales strength reflects its ability to distinguish itself in a crowded FSR space with an attractive Tex-Mex menu, fun experience, leading value and digital strength which looks like a winning formula in the casual segment which is otherwise challenged by a stressed consumer in pursuit of a discretionary purchase.
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• 4Q:21 same store sales for the $1B+ Chains increased +11.5% (+10.4% 2-yr. stack) and increased +16.7% for full year 2021 (+11.0% 2-yr. stack).
• $1B+ Chain market share of the total foodservice industry (food away from home & grocery) increased +0.06% to 17.61% (-0.85% below its 2016 peak).
• April RR Intent to Eat Out Index plunged -13.7% y/y due to difficult comparisons with April 2021 when consumers benefitted from $1,400/person government stimulus payments.
• The Food at Home (grocery stores) CPI expanded at its fastest rate in 40 years (+8.6% y/y during 2/22) – surpassing both the QSR and FSR CPI for the first time since 7/20.
• The price for regular gas increased +$0.70/gallon (+20%) to $4.22 compared to last month (+50% y/y) and represents the highest price ever.
While Jack has done a good job of reviving an iconic West Coast brand in a crowded field, it remains to be seen what impact its premium positioning will have on traffic and sales given the current inflationary environment squeezing consumer income.
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In this issue of our Insights Journal we explore impact of gas hikes on traffic by looking at comp sales correlations and franchisee comments. While the economic data suggests that consumers have some cushion to deal with the gas price shock, franchisees have a different opinion.
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All you need to know about 4Q21 Investor Conference Calls
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• 4Q21 comps for the $1B+ Chains increased +11.5% and +10.5% on a 2-year stacked basis (’21 vs. ’19), but is it sustainable?
• Investors piled into FSR stocks as mandates are lifted across the country while weak QSR performance reflects concerns about the impact of record inflation on lower income consumers.
• 1Q:22 GDP outlook was already flat before the Ukraine and oil price shock (crude up +43% YTD to $110 on 3/2) added further headwinds to an already fragile consumer.
● Considering the Risks of New Franchise Finance Lending Index
● What About All That Consolidation?
● $1B+ Chains Received $6.8B of Covid Relief
• Record breaking 2021 restaurant financing volume driven by pent-up borrower demand and increased consolidation.
• Lenders indicate a much stronger financial condition for QSR borrowers with FSR showing some improvement since July.
• 2H:21 valuation survey results indicate a further increase in franchisee EBITDA multiples with FSR outperforming QSR.
• 2021 restaurant system sales were record highs for both the $1B+ chains and, shockingly, for the independents and smaller chains according to government data.
• Stocks were particularly hard hit in January as concerns over inflation and rising interest rates were most worrisome for consumers & restaurants.
• While franchisee EBITDA multiples for the $1B+ Chains declined -1.7% according to RR’s preliminary 2H:21 valuation survey, they are expected to rise to 2019 levels during 1H22.
It’s going on 2 years since our world was turned upside down with government lockdowns, mask mandates, social distancing, remote work & schools and eventually a steady diet of new tech vaxxes. In our opinion, there is an opportunity for our country to grow strong in unity so long as everyone is allowed to work towards their own version of the American Dream (life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness).
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Annual RR Databook provides benchmarking data for the $1B+ Chains including unit level sales & margins, new build costs, valuations, systemwide sales and unit counts by state.
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• While sales are off to an optimistic start, it remains to be seen what impact higher menu prices will have.
• Consumer spending faces significant headwinds.
• Ramping inflation prospects aggravated by elevated transportation costs.
Sky rocketing COGs & labor costs are driving sharply lower new build ROI which, in turn, is driving a move towards smaller footprint stores optimized for digital & off-premise as well as increasing use of ghost kitchens.
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According to RR’s just released New Unit Investment Report, the sales-to-investment ratio for $1B+ chains declined dramatically in 2021 as higher construction costs (partially reflecting longer project completion times) more than off-set growth in new build AUVs.
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Jersey Mike’s is well positioned to maintain sales outperformance by leveraging its core equities around off-premise, a compelling quality/service positioning, a brand commitment to give back to its customers as well as its communities and effective digital/loyalty marketing efforts.
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All You Need to Know About 3Q21 Investor Conference Calls
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• 3Q21 total restaurant industry revenues increased +30% y/y and +15.2% on a 2 yr. stacked basis. This suggests a huge rebound in the mom & pops during last quarter!
• Sharp FSR Decline Triggered by Lockdown Threats
• Higher Commodity & Construction Prices May Continue into 2022
3Q:21 comps increased +11.7% y/y for the $1B+ Chains and +11.3% on a 2 yr. stacked basis as all segments of the industry have fully recovered.
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Restaurant employees are likely burned-out and perhaps a little distrustful of their employers after working so long to compensate for sharply lower store headcounts.
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Strong YTD comps through 9/21 reflect drive-thru benefit and traction with the brand’s menu and marketing improvements. All-the-same, high rent and labor costs on the West Coast make it difficult for the brand to sustain price value as a premium positioned brand in an increasingly price sensitive market post-stimmy.
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• 3Q:21 Sales Strength Tempered by Labor Shortage.
• Restaurant stocks sharply underperformed in October as deteriorating labor issues and near record commodity costs are squeezing margins.
• 95% of restaurants have experienced significant supply delays or shortages of key food items in recent months, according to a survey by the National Restaurant Association.
While BWW has considerable brand equity as the largest and perhaps most iconic sports bar chain in the US, its challenge is how to improve its relevancy in the new world it finds itself operating in.
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Insightful Q&A with Popeyes operator John Brodersen about the state of the industry. Topics covered include top-line, labor, food costs & real estate. Also executive summaries for Denny’s & Arby’s.
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• QSR Finally Ramps-up Value Amid Record Core Price Hikes
• Consumer Weakness + Inflation = Higher Value Mix
• Labor Issues and Difficult Comparisons Weigh on QSR
• Cap Rates Reach All-Time Low
• Denny’s unique “America’s Diner” brand positioning provides the promise of everyday value with craveable, indulgent products (comfort food) served around the clock.
• Current sales benefit from off-premise stickiness and incremental sales generated by its 2 new virtual brands (Burger Den & Meltdown).
• Now that Denny’s has largely returned to its 2019 unit-level financial performance, the chain must continue to contemporize by making further progress around lunch and dinner while also leveraging progress around off-premise to extend its reach to a younger demo.
• Wingstop is the only $1B+ national chain with an exclusive specialization in the hot chicken wing category.
• A system high AUV translates into a near all-time high EBITDAR in absolute dollars.
• Bone-in wing price volatility represents perhaps the chain’s most significant risk.
