• Wingstop is the only $1B+ national chain with an exclusive specialization in the hot chicken wing category.
• A system high AUV translates into a near all-time high EBITDAR in absolute dollars.
• Bone-in wing price volatility represents perhaps the chain’s most significant risk.
• 2Q:21 comps increased +37.9% y/y for the $1B+ Chains and +12.8% on a 2 yr. stacked basis as all segments of the industry have fully recovered.
• 3Q:21 comp trends are moderating, reflecting flat disposable income (less government assistance) coupled with significantly higher menu and gas prices.
• Franchisee EBITDA valuation multiples continue to recover and are now only -2.9% below their 2H:16 peak.
• Premiums for deals with $1M+ in aggregate EBITDA continue to rebound off the 1H:20 low.
• Full year 2021 restaurant originations are expected to increase +19.1% compared to initial expectations in January.
• 3rd largest burger chain with a well-established brand equity around flame grilling.
• Burger platforms include the signature Whopper configurations and various “King” varieties.
• New Ch’King Sandwich helps BK enter into the chicken sandwich war.
• BK’s challenge is to find ways to expand its market reach towards new, more affluent consumers who are willing to pay for the brand’s strong core equities and quality upgrades.
Taco Bell is extremely well positioned as the only $1B+ national QSR Mexican player (category of 1) with core equity around abundant value and craveable food with a bold flavor profile. A positive long-term sales outlook reflects: strong value equation; innovative marketing calendar; strong positioning with Millennials; ability to address multiple dayparts including breakfast, Happier Hour/snack & late night; access to expanded DSP marketplaces; and new store formats which increase capacity for off-premise digital.
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• RR’s Unit Economic Report provides: (1) FYE 2020 unit level AUV along with COGs, labor, royalty, advertising, other operating and EBITDAR margin estimates for 44 chains; (2) a 5-year history of unit economic performance; (3) an analysis of food and labor cost drivers; and (4) aggregate G&A margins, rent margins and leverage ratios based on RR’s annual lender survey.
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• The following data is based on RR’s Annual Lender Unit Economic Survey representing more than 15,400 franchised units (14,800 QSR and 600 FSR across 29 chains) for FYE 2020.
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• Possible Pause from Astounding 2Q Sales Results
• Drive-Thrus Back in Favor
• FSR Feels Need to Discount More So Than QSR
• Food Inflation & Labor Shortages are a Thing
• The iconic “Love that Chicken from Popeyes” tagline emphasizes the emotional bond of loyal customers with a unique brand positioning around a flavorful Louisiana heritage.
• Sales strength over the last couple of years reflects resounding social media marketing success around its chicken sandwich.
• While Popeyes’ eye-popping success with its chicken sandwich has helped the brand to drive its store-level profitability to an all-time high, intense competition around all things chicken poses a current challenge to the leader of the pack.
